Related lessons
12 min read
Base rates — what a piece of evidence is actually worth
A face-recognition system that is 99.9% accurate and almost entirely wrong, and a number that sent an innocent woman to prison. Both are the same arithmetic, and it is the arithmetic that decides what any piece of evidence is worth.
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Confirmation and survivorship — what you never looked for
Two questions about evidence you did not go looking for. One is a rule you have to discover, and one is a pattern in five famous people — and in both, the thing that would have told you the truth is the thing nobody checks.
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Loss aversion, sunk cost and regression — what it costs you
Four questions you answer about yourself rather than about a scenario, and your own answers are the finding. Then the pattern that makes praise look useless and criticism look like it works, whatever you actually do.
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